Quick Summary:

There were approximately 67.6 million (41%) Independent-Centrist Voters, 46.2 million (28%) Democrats, 46.2 million Republicans (28%), and 5 million (3%) other voters in the 2020 election.

No major party politician can get elected without more than half of the 67+M Independent-Centrist voters.

In addition, the major parties are losing members due to the deep dissatisfaction with the continual partisan, histrionic fighting in the Congress over the last 30 years, since the Tea Party arose. This divide was magnified by the wholesale criminality of the Trump administration from 2016 to the present.Republican Slim Majority for the 118th Congress:

The Republicans won ONLY a slim (222-213) majority in the House from the 2022 election thanks to the Independent-Centrist voters rejecting many of their extremists candidates. This is NOT a mandate but a loud wake-up call.  However, the extremist Republicans, once again, learned nothing from their vapid ‘victory’ in November, 2022 and have blasted-off into partisan-space with a revenge salvo against the Biden administration. All for their small 46M base trying to defend years of Trump crimes. Versus more than half of the 67 million Independent-Centrist voters who told them to stop.

Since they have learned nothing they will be penalized from now to 2024. Although several of their prime-time actors should be receiving indictments soon for their participation in Trump’s attempted coup.

GALLUP Poll > Voter Party Identity

On January 12, 2023, GALLUP released a poll on voter party preference for the 2022 election and found them evenly split between Democrats and Republicans.  The Democrats had at least a 3 point majority each year from 2012 to 2021. But in 2022 the national block shifted from that slight center-left position to a slight center-right position. This is reflected in the Republican party winning a slim majority of seats in the 118th Congress – 222 vs 213 for the Democrats.

Similarly, the Democrats had a 222 vs 213 majority in the 117th Congress, which they won in 2020 against the Trumpers. So, the number of the 2024 competitive races out of the 465 seats is actually quite small.

Largest Percentage of Voting Americans are ‘Independents’

The term ‘Independents’ are those that do not identify with a major (Democrats or Republicans) or minor political party, including parties called ‘the American Independent Party, the Independent American Party, the new Forward Party, etc.

“However, since 2009, independent identification has grown and reached levels not seen before. Now, political independents (41%) greatly outnumber Republican (28%) and Democratic (28%) identifiers.”

Thus major party affiliation continues to decline for the both the Democrats and Republicans. Voters are jettisoning their divisive, extremist platforms and candidates. Plus, minor third parties are making inroads into this maelstrom. The increase in ‘independent voter’ identification is the result of Gen X and the Millennial generation keeping their voting identity as they age.

It used to be dogma that as voters age they become more conservative. But the GenX / Millenial cohort have maintained their political identity since first voting. Thus, both major parties understand that they have to appeal to the younger voters in each election – in hopes of keeping them as they age. It is difficult to change the voting identity of an older voter.

Unfortunately for the nation, with the advent of the 118th Congress the Republicans have taken their extremist flag out of hiding during the election, and first thing launched several revenge crusades against the Biden administration.  This is exactly what cost them the losses in the November 2022 election. To make matters worse, several coup plotters now control those crusading House committees. They never learn.

Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2020

There has been a lot of confusion and wrong numbers on the internet about the correct numbers for the 2020 election. The U.S. Census Bureau publishes voter registration totals for the nation and the 2020 numbers were released in April, 2021. Note that as of this writing, the 2022 election numbers have not yet been provided on the website.

In 2020 there were:

252 million of the total population of the United States (232M citizens) that were over the voting age of 18; However, note that this figure includes 20M non-citizens, 168M registered voters, 26M not registered, and 38M that did not respond to the question.

168 million citizens were reported as registered to vote, which is 66.7% of the 252 million population;

155 million registered citizens actually voted, which is 61.3% of the 252 million eligible voters;

Source: Census.gov/data > Table 1. Reported Voting and Registration by Sex and Single Years of Age, November 2020.

For the 2020 national election, Joe Biden received 81 million votes and Donald Trump received 74 million votes which equals the total amount of 155 million votes cast from Table 1 above. Thus, less then two-thirds of the 252 million ‘eligible’ voters actually performed their civic duty. But, that also means that 92% of ‘registered’ voters did participate, and we are pleased with that turnout.

We suspect that the amounts will be higher for the 2022 and 2024 elections.

67.6 Million “Independent-Centrist’ Voters Rule

From the Gallup study above we can now calculate the approximate number of voters in each identity. Out of 165M registered voters:

• 28% Democrats = 46.2M
• 28% Republican = 46.2M
• 41% Independent = 67.6M
• 3% Other = 5M

Republican Voter Groups vs Democrats Voter Groups

In the excellent Pew Research Center report, Beyond Red vs. Blue: The Political Typology, published November 9, 2021, the Republican and Democratic coalitions are broken down into more defined voter blocks:

Republican Coalition:

• Faith and Flag Conservatives – 23%
• Committed Conservatives – 15%
• Populist Right – 23%
• Ambivalent Right – 18%
• Stressed Sideliners – 15%

Democratic Coalition:

• Progressive Left – 12%
• Establishment Liberals – 23%
• Democratic Mainstays – 28%
• Outsider Left – 16%
• Stressed Sideliners – 13%
• Ambivalent Right – 6%

The 67.6 million Independent-Centrist Voters Self-identify in the Following Groups:

• Ambivalent Right – Republican-leaning group > young, conservative on economic issues but moderate on social issues;
• Stressed Sideliners – do not identify with either major party and hold mixed views of political and social issues; 10% of 2020 voters;
• Outsider Left – Democratic-leaning group > young, liberal on on most issues but deeply dissatisfied with our political system.

Within these groups are the 67 million ‘independent-centrist’ voters that have once again been shown by the extremists that they control the Republican party – and that they are irrelevent.

To these Trump sycophants we say, “We will not forget. And, We will not be fooled again by Republican platitudes in 2024.”

References:

Gallup Poll > U.S. Party Preferences Evenly Split in 2022 After Shift to GOP, January 12, 2023, by Jeffrey M Jones.

US Census Report > Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2020, April, 2021, Table 1, Reported Voting and Registration by Sex and Single Year of Age: November 2020.

Pew Research Center > Report – Beyond Red vs. Blue: The Political Typology – Even in a polarized era, deep divisions in both partisan coalitions, November 9, 2021.

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